"Please use your liberty to promote ours." - Aung San Suu Kyi
I don’t know, nobody does. But Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is convinced that he is pretty close to knowing. Watch him explain at the Ted Talks how mathematics and game theory can be used to predict the most likely outcome of a political power struggle like the one in Iran:
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran’s future
Let’s hope and pray that his computer is right about the bomb!
I am glad the Washington Post is so clear on this:
“What’s happening on the streets of Tehran is a lesson in what makes history: It isn’t guns or secret police, in the end, but the willingness of hundreds of thousands of people to risk their lives to protest injustice. That is what overthrew the shah of Iran in 1979, and it is now shaking the mullahs. This is politics in the raw — unarmed people defying soldiers with guns — and it is the stuff of which revolutions are made. Whether it will succeed in Iran is impossible to predict, but already this movement has put an overconfident regime on the ropes.”
An Iranian student tries to put into words how this latest freedom movement started:
New York Times: A Different Iranian Revolution
“The truth is, it wasn’t supposed to happen this way. The open-air parties that, for one week, turned Tehran at night into a large-scale civic disco, were an accident. People gathered by the tens of thousands in public squares, circling around one another on foot, on motorcycle, in their cars. They showed up around 4 or 5 in the afternoon and stayed together well into the next day, at least 3 or 4 in the morning, laughing, cheering, breaking off to debate, then returning to the fray. A girl hung off the edge of a car window “Dukes of Hazzard” style. Four boys parked their cars in a circle, the headlights illuminating an impromptu dance floor for them to show off their moves.
Everyone watched everyone else and we wondered how all of this could be happening. Who were all of these people? Where did they come from? These were the same people we pass by unknowingly every day. We saw one another, it feels, for the first time. Now in the second week, we continue to look at one another as we walk together, in marches and in silent gatherings, toward our common goal of having our vote respected. No one knew that it would come to this.”
…and there is only one way: you let them do it themselves! Watch Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto explain at the Heritage Foundation how we can integrate the poor into the world economy:
Is Economic Freedom For Everyone?
“Based on his groundbreaking research, renowned economist Hernando de Soto concludes that disorder and political instability, growing terrorist and criminal networks, and grinding poverty in many non-Western countries are due in large part to the fact that many of the world’s most fragile and dangerous states lack critical legal tools required to process information, identify opportunities, reduce risks, and bring people and assets together.”
Watch economist Alex Tabarrok explain at the TED Talks why he believes that “the best is yet to come” for our planet, if we only get a few things right:
“The “dismal science” truly shines in this optimistic talk, as economist Alex Tabarrok argues free trade and globalization are shaping our once-divided world into a community of idea-sharing more healthy, happy and prosperous than anyone’s predictions.”
Watch Ted Galen Carpenter and Ian Vásquez of the Cato Institute explain why we should end the international War on Drugs as soon as possible:
Is It Time to End the International War on Drugs?
“Since President Nixon launched the War on Drugs in 1971, its escalating direct and indirect costs have become increasingly apparent. As we have seen over the decades in Colombia, Mexico, Afghanistan, and other drug-source countries, banning the drug trade creates economic distortions and an opportunity for some of the most unsavory elements to gain tenacious footholds. Drug prohibition inevitably leads to an orgy of corruption and violence.”
Watch economist William Bernstein talk at Google Talks about his fascinating and fact-filled book The Birth of Plenty – How the Prosperity of the Modern World was Created, in which he explains why there was almost no growth at all until about 1820, when the world suddenly changed forever:
One of the most frightening and sadening realities in today’s Germany is how many people justify or downplay the crimes of the SED, the communist party which ruled Eastern Germany for decades.
Watch this touching documentary and confront those who deny or distort history:
Watch Steven Pinker speak about his book The Blank Slate – The Modern Denial of Human Nature, which I very highly recommend – it is the most informative, fascinating and convincing book on human nature I have ever read! -, at the MIT:
Walid Shoebat became a member of the Palestinian Liberation Organization as a young man, commited acts of terror and violence against Israelis and was imprisoned in an Israeli jail. Today he is an outspoken critic of any sort of antisemitism, antizionism, terrorism and religious extremism. Watch him speak at the University of California:
When most Westerners speak of human rights they usually mean political and civil rights like free speech. But to most poor people in the world economic rights are at least as important and often times more important than political and civil rights.
Watch Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Economic Adviser for the World Bank, speak about his latest book, The Power of Freedom: Uniting Human Rights and Development, at a Cato Institute Book Forum.
“Are the quests for human rights and economic development compatible? Jean-Pierre Chauffour takes the development and human rights communities to task for working at cross purposes and often advocating policies that violate basic rights, whether those rights are economic freedoms or broader issues of personal choice. The author will explain how the two traditions can be reconciled by empowering people with economic, civil, and political liberty, and he will outline a mutually supportive agenda for advocates of growth and human rights.”
Listen to Brink Lindsey talk about his book The Age of Abundance: How Prosperity Transformed America’s Politics and Culture to Russ Roberts at EconTalk:
Feminist Muslim Irshad Manji supported the military intervention in Afghanistan from the beginning – and she did so mainly because of one simple reason: human rights. But now she has doubts, if the West will really be able to bring liberal democracy to Afghanistan: Tribalism triumphs in Afghanistan
Listen to her debate the issue with Nelofer Pazira, an Afghan Canadian journalist, who defends the war as necessary and moral:
That is the subtitle of a new book by Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid, which I highly recommend. Moyo knows the facts – and she knows Africa.
Watch her discuss about how we can make poverty history with development expert William Easterly at the Templeton Foundation
If you still believe that the subprime and financial crisis was caused by capitalism gone wild, here are some of the very best studies, talks and articles about the government’s responsibilities:
John Taylor is Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He is best known for the “Taylor-Rule”, his idea about what an optimal monetary policy should look like. In his latest book “Getting Off Track”, he tries to prove “How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis”. Watch him talk about it at Uncommon Knowledge:
Crisis Management with John Taylor: Chapter 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5
“Economist John Taylor discusses today’s financial crisis – which he labels the most ‘unusual’ crisis since the Great Depression.”
You can read the most important chapters of the book here:
The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong – November 2008
A Black Swan in the Money Market / Further Results
The Cato Journal has a highly recommendable special issue on the crisis featuring many experts: Lessons From The Subprime Crisis.
Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr. on Greenspan’s defense of his own policies in the Wall Street Journal: Did the Fed Cause the Housing Bubble?
Watch Jim Powell from Cato talk about the Great Depression and the Subprime Crisis at C-Span.
Lawrence White is Professor of Economic History at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. In a Cato Paper he tries to answer the question: “How Did We Get into This Financial Mess?”. Also listen to an interesting and convincing speech by him here:
Lawrence White: The Subprime Crisis – Part 1 / Part 2
Stan Liebowitz is Professor of Economics at the University of Texas. His paper for the Independent Institute: Anatomy of a Train Wreck: Causes of the Mortgage Meltdown is a must-read.
Steve Forbes is CEO of Forbes and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Magazine. Watch him speak about the crisis at the Commonwealth Club of California.
On Reason TV you can watch a couple of videos on the bailout and the stimulus package.
Peter Wallison has written two books on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. Watch him speak about their role in creating this disaster at C-Span and about the crisis in general at Reason TV.
Economist Arnold Kling has worked for Freddie Mac. He explains how Fannie and Freddie worked at Econ Talk.
Watch stock broker and investment adviser Peter Schiff predict the coming crisis in 2006 and explain its roots at a meeting of the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Association.
Johnny Munkhammar, Research Director at the European Enterprise Institute, has written a very readable paper on the crisis:
The Financial Crisis – A Gigantic Failure of Politics
Watch him speak about market reforms and the crisis (Part 2 / Part 3) at a conference in Tallinn, Estonia.
Med Yones, President of the International Institute of Management (IIM), also saw it coming: The Troubling U.S. Economy: Risks & Threats 2007-2017
Watch a short, but frightening video on the latest interventions into the economy by the US government:
Hundreds of economists, including three Nobel laureates, have signed a statement against the so-called stimulus package that the Cato Institute has placed in major newspapers like the New York Times.
Paul Collier is Professor of Economics at Oxford University and Department Director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies.
Watch him speak about his book “The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It”, in which he “outlines four traps that the poorest countries in the world can find themselves in: the trap of civil war, the trap of being landlocked, the trap of having abundant natural resouces, and the trap of having a bad government” and explains how they can escape these traps:
If you believe that total drug decriminialization is a crazy idea, think again! Because Portugal did decriminalize all drugs, including heroin and cocaine, in 2001, and they are still glad they did.
Listen to an inspiring Cato Policy Forum on the topic:
Drug Decriminalization in Portugal
“In 2001, Portugal began a remarkable policy experiment,
decriminalizing all drugs, including cocaine and heroin. Some predicted disastrous results—that drug addiction rates would soar and the country would become a haven for “drug tourists.” Now that several years have passed, policy experts can study the results. In a new paper for the Cato Institute, attorney and author Glenn Greenwald closely examines the Portugal experiment and concludes that the doomsayers were wrong. There is now a widespread consensus in Portugal that decriminalization has been a success. The debate in Portugal has shifted rather dramatically to minor adjustments in the existing arrangement. There is no real debate about whether drugs should once again be criminalized. Join us for a discussion about Glenn Greenwald’s field research in Portugal and what lessons his findings may hold for drug policies in other countries.”
Hundreds of migrants feared drowned as boat sinks off Libya
Is there no way we can make sure that a human tragedy like this won’t ever happen again? I believe there is. And so does journalist and economist Phillippe Legrain. Watch him speak about his book Immigrants: Your Country Needs Them on Ireland’s RTE2 (Part 1 / 2) or on Frost over the World.
Even though they try hard to kill it – as the Economist reports:
I am off to the “Center of the World” for a week. Here are three of my favourite songs about the city. You may find the videos on You Tube…
The Beastie Boys: “An Open Letter To NYC”
Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens and Staten
From the Battery to the top of Manhattan
Asian, Middle-Eastern and Latin
Black, White, New York you make it happen
Brownstones, water towers, trees, skyscrapers
Writers, prize fighters and Wall Street traders
We come together on the subway cars
Diversity unified, whoever you are
We’re doing fine on the One and Nine line
On the L we’re doin’ swell
On the number Ten bus we fight and fuss
‘Cause we’re thorough in the boroughs and that’s a must
I remember when the Duece was all porno flicks
Running home after school to play PIX * 1
At lunch I’d go to Blimpies down on Montague Street
And hit the Fulton Street Mall for the sneakers on my feet
Dear New York I hope you’re doing well
I know a lot’s happen and you’ve been through hell
So, we give thanks for providing a home
Through your gates at Ellis Island we passed in droves
Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens and Staten
From the Battery to the top of Manhattan
Asian, Middle-Eastern and Latin
Black, White, New York you make it happen
The L.I.E. the B.Q.E
Hippies at the band shell with the L.S.D.
Get my BVD’s from VIM
You know I’m reppin’ Manhattan the best I can
Stopped off at Bleeker Bob’s got thrown out
Sneakin’ in at 4:00 am after going out
You didn’t rob me in the park at Dianna Ross
But everybody started looting when the light went off
From the South South Bronx on out to Queens Bridge
From Hollis Queens right down to Bay Ridge
From Castle Hill to the Lower East Side
From 1010 WINS to Live At Five
Dear New York this is a love letter
To you and how you brought us together
We can’t say enough about all you do
‘Cause in the city were ourselves and electric too
Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens and Staten
From the Battery to the top of Manhattan
Asian, Middle-Eastern and Latin
Black, White, New York you make it happen
Shout out the South Bronx where my mom hails from
Right next to High Bridge across from Harlem
To the Grand Concourse where my mom and dad met
Before they moved on down to the Upper West
I see you’re still strong after all that’s gone on
Life long we dedicate this song
Just a little something to show some respect
To the city that blends and mends and tests
Since 911 we’re still livin’
And lovin’ life we’ve been given
Ain’t nothing gonna take that away from us
Were lookin’ pretty and gritty ’cause in the city we trust
Dear New York I know a lot has changed
2 towers down but you’re still in the game
Home to many rejecting know one
Accepting peoples of all places, wherever they’re from
Simon & Garfunkel: “A Heart in New York”
New york, to that tall skyline I come, flyin in from london to your door
New york, lookin down on central park
Where they say you should not wander after dark
New york, like a scene from all those movies
But youre real enough to me, but theres a heart
A heart that lives in new york
A heart in new york, a rose on the street
I write my song to that city heartbeat
A heart in new york, love in her eye, an open door and a friend for the night
New york, you got money on your mind
And my words wont make a dimes worth a difference, so heres to you new york
Bob Dylan: “Talkin’ New York”
Rambling out of the wild west
Leaving the towns I love best
Thought I’d seen some ups and down
‘Till I come into New York town
People going down to the ground
Building going up to the sky.
Wintertime in New York town
The wind blowing snow around
Walk around with nowhere to go
Somebody could freeze right to the bone
I froze right to the bone
New York Times said it was the coldest
winter in seventeen years
I didn’t feel so cold then.
I swung on to my old guitar
Grabbed hold of a subway car
And after a rocking, reeling, rolling ride
I landed up on the downtown side:
Greenwich Village.
I walked down there and ended up
In one of them coffee-houses on the block
Got on the stage to sing and play
Man there said, Come back some other day
You sound like a hillbilly
We want folksingers here.
Well, I got a harmonica job begun to play
Blowing my lungs out for a dollar a day
I blowed inside out and upside down
The man there said he loved my sound
He was raving about he loved my sound
Dollar a day’s worth.
After weeks and weeks of hanging around
I finally got a job in New York town
In a bigger place, bigger money too
Even joined the Union and paid my dues.
Now, a very great man once said
That some people rob you with a fountain pen
It don’t take too long to find out
Just what he was talking about
A lot of people don’t have
much food on their table
But they got a lot of forks and knives
And they gotta cut something.
So one morning when the sun was warm
I rambled out of New York town
Pulled my cap down over my eyes
And heated out for the western skies
So long New York
Howdy, East Orange.
Watch this impressing documentary about a man, who traces his father’s journey “through former labor camps and cities in northern Russia and his final uncovering of the horrible truth at the dreaded camp city of Vorkuta within the Artic Circle”:
John Stossel has some great ideas in this 20/20 documentary:
Stupid in America – How we cheat our kids
The Economist on How to stop the drug wars
I just love this guy – self description: “Joe Cocker on speed”!
Watch Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, debate his book The Spirit of Democracy – The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World, which I very strongly recommend to anyone interested in the science of democracy and democracy movements, with some researchers from Freedom House at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs:
Watch Dahlia Khalifa, senior economist at the World Bank, discuss the findings of the Doing Business 2009 Report, which again measures the strength of property rights and the fight against poverty around the world, at Second Life:
Download the full report or single chapters for free on the Doing Business website:
“Doing Business 2009 is the sixth in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 181 economies – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe – and over time.”
6,800 drug-war related deaths in Mexico since January 2007 – What is happening? Why is it happening? And how can it ever be stopped?
Watch or listen to a Cato Policy Forum on Mexico’s Drug War: The Growing Crisis on Our Southern Border
